Clinton does have some swing states: MI & FL by default, NV & AR by talent. Obama has some, too, though. VA is pretty big, and CO gave him a clear lead. ME, WI, MN... there's a good number of electoral votes before you even start in on the Clinton '92/'96 Southern states won by Obama this time round (WV, KY, TN).

I think that the where-the-support-is factor does balance in favour of Clinton, but it's a far from open and shut case. VA, in particular, seems like a state that could swing the election.