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Date: 2007-05-15 05:53 pm (UTC)Besides, this isn't news. Catholics have always known this. Thing is, the Pope isn't gonna do any excommunicating himself and neither are any of the American Bishops. It's not Good Business.
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Date: 2007-05-15 06:56 pm (UTC)Kennedy is the central vote on the issue and will almost always have 4 justices on either side of him, since abortion is, for the most part, not one of the more complex issues the court faces. He co-wrote Casey, the 1992 case that forms the basis for modern constitutional abortion law. There, and in other cases since, he's been all about a relatively lax "undue burden" test. He's long supported, for instance, the idea that the law should allow laws that limit abortions in the interest of protecting pre-natal life. It seems pretty likely that there'll be a fair few more restrictions permitted over the next few years. It's not likely that there'll be a particularly significant restriction permitted.
Kennedy is Catholic, but he's not likely to pay much attention to the Pope on this matter. He knew church doctrine when he wrote Casey. He knew church doctrine on homosexuality when he wrote Lawrence.
The Pope's words are bad for abortion because they mean that Catholics from the pro-choice wing of their party, like Guiliani and Pelosi, could have more difficulty finding support. For the most part, though, the impact of the words will be felt much more in places where abortion is still hard; the pronouncement was much more closely linked with abortion becoming legal in Mexico City than anything significant in the US. Benedict isn't terribly interested in the US, for the most part.
And yes, Kennedy is incredibly unlikely to be excommunicated. It's an issue that it makes sense to be depressed about, but there's nothing catastrophic coming.
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Date: 2007-05-15 06:56 pm (UTC)But sadly, in this day in age, supreme court justices are in the game of politics, not law.
Hey, I should be done with my dentist appoint around 4. Wanna pick me up earlier and Elisa, you and I can go walking?
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Date: 2007-05-15 06:58 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-05-15 07:14 pm (UTC)Let me put it this way: once you're a Supreme Court Justice, you aren't in politics. You've won at politics. :)
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Date: 2007-05-15 07:19 pm (UTC)If you're not gonna believe me, listen to the Brit. I think it's fair to say that anything we essentially agree on can get taken to the bank. :)
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Date: 2007-05-15 07:47 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-05-15 08:01 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-05-16 06:55 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-05-16 08:11 am (UTC)For what it's worth, the abortion cases aren't very heavy on law, for obvious reasons (although the broad rule that abortion is protected by privacy may be old, the details of the legal principle aren't clear, resulting in each case being relatively fact and hot air heavy, with legal expertise not being terribly necessary). If you're interested in this, Kennedy wrote an opinion in Hodgson v. Minnesota, 497 U.S. 417 (1990) which said that he was happy to require a 48 notice periods and both parents being notified, joined an opinion in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services, 492 U.S. 490 (1989), saying that states could deny funding to abortion clinics and demand testing for viability. He co-wrote the more complex and difficult opinion in Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey, 505 U.S. 833 (1992), which said that parental notification was still OK, as were notice periods, but spousal notification was not. It also transformed the basis of constitutional protection of the right to choose and gave the modern rule that regulation was OK if it did not place an "undue burden". Since then cases have argued over what burdens are "undue" because there's no real guidance on what that means. In Stenberg v. Carhart, 530 U.S. 914 (2000) and Gonzales v. Carhart, 550 U.S. ___ (2007) he claimed that bans on partial birth abortion are not undue.
It's not easy to know the details of where he stands, because the man is incapable of writing a legal opinion; of all the SCOTUS justices, he's the most likely to use emotive terms rather than legal ones. In the first Carhart case he suggested that the state's interest was in maintaining the dignity of the medical profession was the basis on which partial birth abortion should be banned. I'm not sure if you know what that means for other regulations, but I'm convinced that I wouldn't want to play an RPG that Kennedy wrote the mechanics for. He is also the justice most inclined to write in emotional detail about the procedures, despite the degree to which the "fetus.. ..dies just as a human adult or child would: It bleeds to death as it is torn from limb from limb" is completely irrelevent. He's not suggesting that there's a constitutional rule that says that they can be killed, but not in a way that is common for humans to die, he's just engaging in emotional masturbation. Likewise, on the other side, he's written in Casey that the reason Abortion should be protected is that "At the heart of liberty is the right to define one's own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life". Again, if you can take that legal ruling and apply it to any situation with confidence, you're a better lawyer than I am. It doesn't, incidentally, mean that you can practice Native American spirituality, since Kennedy voted to strike down federal attempts to protect religious peyote use.
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Date: 2007-05-16 08:11 am (UTC)